ETF Trading Ideas: Monday Night
As I'm young and still have that impatient trading blood in me, the slower, more number-oriented analysis is sometimes a drag. The thrill of the split-second order motivated by chart, fundamental, or Level II is still tempting for me, and though we all eventually mature into more conservative investors, there's still nothing that feels better than a well-placed swing play or dynamite option trade. To get this out of my system, I've decided to talk all these ideas out here. So, time to digest the night's news and speculate on tomorrow's profits.
Japan
Related: SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan (JPP), iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ), WisdomTree Japan High-Yielding Equity (DNL), WisdomTree Japan Total Dividend (DXJ), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend (DFJ)
News out of Japan tonight shows sell orders to buy orders from foreign clients at about 5:4, with some records indicating at least net 7.3 million shares sell-side. The Nikkei opened down about 20 points, led down by those same consumer electronics that enjoyed the last few days. If you're looking to play this trend, the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap dividend is trading above it's 50-day moving average, possibly overextended relative to the other Japan ETFs listed above.
South America
Related: iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ), iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW), CurrencyShares Mexican Peso (FXM), iShares S&P Latin American 40 Index (ILF)
It's been a pretty mixed night across Latin America. Equities cooled off after a hot week in Brazil and Mexico, with markets remaining near record highs and currencies bolstered by net trade flow and foreign interest. Watch the MSCI ETFs specific to these countries, especially since the Brazil fund (EWZ) has options offered. Argentina likewise saw its stock market cool on average earnings reports, and Ecuador will likely be hurting as a US trade treaty recently expired, but Chile extended the weeks gains in currency and stocks with its best overall growth numbers in two years. Venezuela also saw very strong growth in automobile purchase so far this year, perhaps a proxy to overall disposable income and growth in Latin America. As the iShares S&P Latin American 40 Index offers options, now might be a good time to play a speculative spread.
The Mexican Peso, however, might be hit by a significant decrease in remittance flows from the United States, as the expected rate of growth in Q1 of 2007 was 3%, compared to 28% in Q1 of 2006. Shorting the CurrencyShares Mexican Peso fund (FXM) might give proxy to this slowing trend. The Latin American currencies have generally found good support at their current levels in the last day, with the exception of Columbia's government attempts to slow aggressive currency appreciation that threatens its exports. The next few days should tell whether the general currency support is money looking for a long term home or just here for a play.

- Michael J Bommarito II's blog
- Add new comment
- 511 reads
Recent comments
4 weeks 5 days ago
9 weeks 2 days ago
9 weeks 3 days ago
11 weeks 6 days ago
12 weeks 12 hours ago
12 weeks 5 days ago
14 weeks 1 day ago
16 weeks 1 hour ago
18 weeks 21 hours ago
19 weeks 4 days ago