ETF Trading Ideas: Tuesday Morning - Bollinger Bands
Update @ 10:20: It looks like Brazil's central bank just went in to follow Columbia's recent move, offering $600M worth of reverse swaps to slow the real's apprecation. Though there's no CurrencyShares ETF for Brazil, expect possible reprocussions for the S&P Latin America 40 Index as more countries in the region follow suit.
Bespoke had a great article over at Seeking Alpha today about global markets and their position relative to their Bollinger Bands. This is nicely timed as well, since there are a number of events today relative to Bollinger bands and emerging markets.
As I mentioned last night in trading ideas, Latin American markets were decelerating with money flowing into currency, although I was uncertain of whether the money was seeking a home outside US markets or just there for the run. It looks like money is definitely being taken off the table today, from Latin America to Asia, as a large number of the MSCI ETFs have seen dramatic pullbacks under their 50-session Bolling Bands. The four I have my eyes on are Malaysia (EWM), Singapore (EWS), Brazil (EWZ), and Mexico (EWW). The overall S&P Latin America 40 Index is likewise trading below it's 50-session lower band. All in all, most overextended MSCI emerging ETFs are trading between 1.5% and 2% down on the day.
As I also mentioned last night, the Brazil MSCI Index (EWZ) offers options, and if you'd felt particularly bearish on the market, there was good money to be made. The May $55 puts closed last night at $1.40, but bid/ask is currently up to $1.75 x $1.95. Overnight profit realization would have been about 40%, and as EWZ seems to be fighting a number of above-average-size stop-loss sell orders on ask, it's likely that these puts will only become more valuable as the day continues.
- Michael J Bommarito II's blog
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