Convertible

ETF Market Summary: Week Ending August 17th, 2007

    Volatility has been the word of the month, and though last week saw much of it, the market ended overall much further to the downside. 

    For the week, only 5 of 26 categories ended up, with only short and convertible funds ending the week up more than 1%.  Of the 21 categories that were down, 17 were down more than 1%, 15 were down more than 2%, 9 were down more than 3%, and 4 were down more than 5%. 

    For the month now, only short funds are up, with the remaining funds down on average 8.5%. 

    As far as the week's correlations go, other than short funds, only commodity, municipal, and infrastructure funds had S&P correlations below 50%.

    Dollar-Weighted Category Return

Category Day Week Month YTD Week Correlation to SPY
Latin America 4.55% -7.14% -16.92% 3.65% 79.20%
Infrastructure 4.30% -5.97% -15.80% -1.60% 37.61%
Asia 2.84% -5.52% -13.36% 0.37% 69.26%
Call/Write 6.24% -5.32% -10.54% -2.00% 76.27%
China 4.02% -4.60% -10.03% 1.11% 69.17%
Emerging Markets 3.20% -4.20% -12.69% 0.48% 75.44%
Commodities & Resources 0.71% -4.19% -6.51% 0.20% 17.87%
Transports 2.14% -3.87% -10.88% 2.64% 93.03%
Russia 5.85% -3.28% -11.00% -8.91% 76.47%
Retail 1.33% -2.86% -8.36% -0.99% 94.90%
Currency 0.75% -2.84% -4.21% 0.44% 64.00%
MSCI 0.92% -2.62% -9.45% 1.51% 86.31%
Japan -0.71% -2.29% -6.92% -0.55% 63.06%
Europe 2.17% -2.20% -9.36% 0.12% 79.47%
Consumer Goods & Services 0.68% -2.05% -7.89% -0.24% 79.48%
Mid Cap 2.10% -1.21% -8.24% 0.16% 86.10%
Utilities 1.06% -1.15% -5.17% 0.41% 79.57%
Large Cap 1.56% -0.80% -5.86% 0.21% 92.21%
Healthcare 0.42% -0.72% -4.20% 0.17% 65.21%
Energy 3.66% -0.46% -8.86% 1.17% 67.08%
Real Estate 2.69% -0.31% -7.18% -0.59% 85.25%
Biotech 1.16% 0.38% -2.58% -0.30% 53.28%
Small Cap 2.00% 0.39% -5.83% 0.02% 81.38%
Dividend 2.46% 0.64% -4.14% -0.09% 86.57%
Convertible 11.22% 1.60% -7.99% -1.45% 75.41%
Short -3.59% 1.89% 13.88% -0.88% -90.26%

ETF Market Summary: Week Ending June 15th 2007

    On the week, 21 of 26 categories ended up.  Of these 21 categories, 17 ended up at least 1%, with the largest gains seen in Russia, Latin America, and China.  Of those 5 categories that were in the red, only 2 were down more than 0.3% - short funds, on the wrong end of the market this week, and real estate funds, still plagued by the on-going subprime and rate worries.

    It's interesting as well to note that the categories with the highest correlation to the S&P after retail were Russia and MSCI.  Those with the lowest correlations after short funds were currency, convertible, and call-write funds, as is typically the case.

Dollar-Weighted Category Return

 

Category Day Week Month YTD Day $ Week Correlation to SPY
Short -1.46% -3.36% -4.69% -1.84% 1484 -87.48%
Real Estate 1.38% -1.03% -0.18% -0.08% 452 78.95%
Convertible 0.30% -0.32% -2.24% 0.02% 16 58.95%
Japan 0.91% -0.20% 2.38% 0.37% 243 78.41%
Retail 0.25% -0.05% 2.81% 2.07% 324 98.67%
Infrastructure 1.02% 0.15% -6.22% 5.65% 5 89.58%
Currency 0.44% 0.20% 0.83% 0.52% 22 34.88%
Call/Write 0.61% 0.46% 3.16% 2.25% 5 68.27%
Asia 0.81% 0.83% 1.08% 1.36% 26 88.08%
Consumer Goods & Services 0.40% 0.98% 1.09% 0.32% 172 75.78%
Healthcare 0.75% 1.04% -0.56% 0.92% 71 81.96%
Transports 0.43% 1.15% -0.61% 11.57% 68 92.41%
MSCI 0.81% 1.39% 1.33% 9.90% 377 96.58%
Commodities & Resources 0.67% 1.47% 0.79% 0.42% 332 71.76%
Mid Cap 0.67% 1.54% 2.39% 0.51% 901 86.57%
Dividend 0.92% 1.61% -0.84% 0.60% 62 92.87%
Large Cap 0.53% 1.74% 1.39% 0.38% 1884 90.72%
Small Cap 1.21% 1.81% 4.41% 0.24% 7668 77.82%
Biotech 1.32% 2.37% 1.75% 0.67% 169 88.89%
Europe 1.73% 3.09% 1.64% 0.46% 250 91.06%
Utilities 1.38% 3.58% -4.23% 0.75% 631 74.58%
Energy 1.51% 4.77% 6.58% 1.54% 1212 90.13%
Emerging Markets 2.26% 4.97% 4.93% 1.16% 2042 76.41%
China 2.40% 6.05% 6.17% 0.87% 538 83.60%
Latin America 2.33% 6.06% 7.51% 9.74% 78 89.87%
Russia 1.51% 6.06% 4.05% -6.44% 20 97.80%

ETF Market Summary: Wednesday, June 6th 2007

Dollar-Weighted Category Return

    Wednesday saw continued outflows with 24 of 26 categories trading down, bringing 14 of 26 categories to red for the past week.  The worst percentage losers for the day were Latin America, emerging markets, and Europe, all trading down over 2%.  Dollar-weighted European ETF returns are now nearly break-even for the past month.  Note as well the incredible 97% correlation between the Latin American ETF returns and the S&P 500 over the last week.  I would avoid Latin American ETFs as alternatives to US markets right now if you're looking for diversification.

    Those categories that were significantly less negative than the rest of the market are convertibles, call/write, commodities and resources, and Japan, as had been seen in Tuesday's market summary.  Given the possibility of a market down-turn, I would most favor the writer funds, as selling calls is pure profit in falling markets.

    The only two categories up were currency ETFs, just by a hair, and short ETFs.  This week's US data, combined with the ECB tick and strong Australian data, has accelerated the dollar depreciation trend.  As the dollar loses strength, watch for increased downside risk in transports, utilities, and Asian funds.

Sector Day Week Month YTD Day $ Week Correlation to SPY
Latin America -2.82% -0.57% 6.82% 7.53% 73 96.76%
Emerging Markets -2.49% -0.57% 1.62% 0.72% 1759 59.43%
Europe -2.09% -1.15% 0.15% 0.39% 285 82.97%
Transports -1.70% -1.56% -1.29% 10.90% 206 73.27%
Utilities -1.56% -3.43% -4.81% 0.68% 753 65.22%
Mid Cap -1.51% -0.42% 1.84% 0.48% 1108 81.75%
MSCI -1.44% -0.55% 0.24% 9.09% 437 95.00%
China -1.44% 2.31% 3.24% -0.40% 284 62.13%
Biotech -1.28% -0.68% -2.80% 0.45% 161 69.07%
Energy -1.27% 0.31% 6.15% 1.30% 1366 67.66%
Small Cap -1.11% -0.34% 1.47% 0.21% 8595 81.61%
Large Cap -1.11% -1.23% 1.27% 0.33% 2291 83.39%
Russia -1.06% 2.11% -3.22% -8.50% 14 50.03%
Infrastructure -1.03% 0.64% -0.46% 8.21% 7 61.10%
Consumer Goods & Services -1.02% -0.63% 1.04% 0.29% 201 83.98%
Asia -0.99% 1.00% 0.88% 1.26% 46 67.82%
Healthcare -0.93% -1.03% -1.08% 0.93% 127 71.72%
Dividend -0.90% -0.35% -0.42% 0.62% 47 73.29%
Retail -0.79% 1.13% 2.81% 2.28% 721 87.58%
Real Estate -0.68% -1.93% -1.24% 0.03% 731 63.43%
Convertible -0.41% 0.02% -0.43% 0.30% 16 48.26%
Japan -0.41% 1.31% 1.16% 0.38% 209 76.66%
Call/Write -0.19% 0.86% 2.00% 2.20% 3 7.30%
Commodities & Resources -0.19% 2.79% -1.40% 0.63% 357 66.03%
Currency 0.02% 0.92% 0.98% 0.54% 34 37.30%
Short 2.19% 1.28% -1.07% -1.55% 1496 NaN

ETF Market Summary: Thursday May 24th, 2007

Dollar-Weighted ETF/CEF Category Return

Sector Day Week Month YTD Day $ Week Correlation to SPY
Latin America -3.22% -2.24% 3.96% 5.83% 92 84.55%
Russia -2.98% -3.50% -8.40% -8.81% 21 78.36%
China -2.83% -4.77% 0.78% -0.94% 708 71.77%
Emerging Markets -2.40% -1.86% 0.05% 0.58% 2260 71.14%
Utilities -2.30% -3.42% -2.43% 0.81% 776 71.43%
Asia -2.19% -2.34% -0.74% 0.98% 60 55.23%
Energy -1.83% -0.14% 3.85% 1.07% 1937 75.77%
Mid Cap -1.67% -0.13% -0.04% 0.40% 1174 78.47%
Infrastructure -1.61% -5.18% -1.50% 7.65% 5 75.45%
Real Estate -1.59% -1.68% -7.62% -0.15% 995 11.61%
Europe -1.40% -0.02%