Just another ETF site?
So if Google is smart enough to tell you that there are plenty of other ETF sites out there, whose great idea was this? Why does anyone need just another endless archive of commentary and PR Newswire summaries?
Well, to be honest, there isn't much reason. There are already sites like Seeking Alpha or ETF Trends, both of which do a great job at getting lots of good and timely commentary into one place, all at no cost (come on, their ads aren't that bad).
Thankfully, however, what these sites provide is not what I intend to produce here at ETF Central. In my eyes, Seeking Alpha and ETF Trends do a great job of supplying the first step in investing - awareness. It may sound stupid, but if you aren't aware of an opportunity, how can you determine whether or not it's profitable? They even do a pretty good job with the next step - qualitative analysis - and I regularly read some of their writers (Roger Nusbaum and Mebane Faber to be precise). So what's left, you ask?
Well, for many investors, there isn't anything left, and that, in my opinion, is the problem. What there ought to be is more quantitative analysis, more number-crunching, more model-running. This is what I'd like to bring to the table, and as broadly as I can possibly offer.
In many investors' defense, they've used some kind of "failproof" technical analysis or portfolio theory, but still been burnt. Further complicating the matter, most people are more skeptical of numbers and statistics than they are of reasoned ideas. So while I don't intend to present or even believe at all in results flawlessly indicative of profit, I would like to bring more numbers into the discussion.
If you have any requests for analysis or are interested in contributing yourself, please feel free to email me or register for the site and leave a comment.
- Michael J Bommarito II's blog
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Examples of quantitative ETF analysis
So if you're still interested in an example of what kind of content I intend, here's a good example comparison of the most popular emerging market ETF's out there right now. The data for these calculations was taken from January 2005 to March 2007, so it should be relatively representative of how well these funds handle global upswings and downswings.
It's pretty clear that EEM has lower return and higher risk than either of the other funds. ADRE, however, has a very marginal amount of additional risk compared to VWO, despite a significant increase in expected return. It is worthwhile to note that this ranking seems to be negatively correlated to the actual net asset value of these funds, but to make an causal inference from this might be a step too far. Regardless, based on this data alone, it seems ADRE is the best way to gain exposure to emerging markets hands-down.