Top VIX ETF Proxies Over the Past 200 Sessions As Of November 30th, 2007

  I've covered the VIX and the best way to own a pseudo "VIX ETF" in the past, and given the high-volatility regime we've seen over the past few months, I figured it would be a good time to update this data.

  Here I've calculated the daily log-return correlation of the closing prices of the VIX and 1100 ETFs and CEFs, and the top 20 are shown below.  The results are dramatic, as literally every fund is a ProShares fund, and 14 of 20 are UltraShort funds. 

  As the ProShares Ultra ETFs are based on futures, they tend to need an above-average allocation of risk-free assets (e.g. bonds or money market holdings) to achieve the prescribed double-leverage.  I think the results here indicate that either the underlying futures markets are being used as a volatility hedge, or that ProShares themselves are putting some of that unused risk-free capital to invest in long-volatility contracts.

Top 20 Positively VIX Correlated ETFs

Name Symbol Correlation
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors SSG 68%
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas DUG 69%
ProShares UltraShort Technology REW 72%
ProShares UltraShort Financials SKF 73%
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods SZK 74%
ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials SMN 76%
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services SCC 78%
ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 SDD 78%
ProShares Short SmallCap600 SBB 79%
ProShares UltraShort Industrials SIJ 79%
ProShares Short QQQ PSQ 80%
ProShares Short Russell2000 RWM 80%
ProShares UltraShort QQQ QID 82%
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 TWM 83%
ProShares Short MidCap400 MYY 84%
ProShares UltraShort MidCap400 MZZ 85%
ProShares Short Dow30 DOG 86%
ProShares UltraShort Dow30 DXD 86%
ProShares Short S&P500 SH 87%
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 SDS 88%

  I've additionally included a few other interesting pieces.  Below is the cumulative log-return of the VIX and the top 10 of the above 20 funds.  Note that although they are all very directionally correlated, the nonlinear magnitude changes of the VIX results in dramatic differences in accumulated returns.  This demonstrates that although these funds may provide effective short-term proxies, there is no substitute for a long-term long-volatility contract in the current ETF market.

  For those interested in the distribution of VIX correlation across the entire ETF market, here is the probability density of correlation against the VIX for 1100 ETFs and CEFs.  Note its bimodal nature, with a large number of strongly negatively correlated funds and a large number of mildly negatively correlated funds.  Only 8% of all funds are non-negatively correlated with the VIX.

ETF correlation

Can you provide detailed instructions on how you are calculating ETF correlation?

Correlation for extreme price fluctuations.

Very interesting research !I'm wondering if you have identified ETFs with high positive correlation with the VIX when returns of this latter are "extremely high" / when returns of the S&P500 are "extremely low" ?This is because much of portfolio managers needs diversification when markets tumble.Finally, just a question: Are correlations calculated on daily, weekly or monthly returns ?Thanks,