Update on Oil ETFs and Contango: September 2007

  One of the first things I did on this blog, way back in April, was to cover crude oil ETFs and their performance relative to spot.  This was a pretty big issue at the time, as many of these funds were hit with contango tracking issues that left many upset. 

 

    One of the most visible aspects of this cumulative log-return comparison is that UCR again outperforms all other ETFs.  This, however, comes at the cost of a lower correlation to spot, and one would not want to short UCR in order to short oil.  Granted, perhaps Claymore has decided to overcompensate for such tracking errors in each direction by providing separate up and down funds, but this fact should then be made perhaps more clear. 

    Overall, based on raw weekly correlation, DBO and OIL come in a very close 1st and 2nd for tracking accuracy on spot.

Weekly Log-Return Oil ETF Correlation to West Texas Spot

 

Symbol R
USO 88.64%
OIL 96.59%
UCR 74.24%
DBO 96.61%